Nice article on Detroit's real estate boom in the WSJ (link)
by Raoul (2024-04-22 08:40:31)
Edited on 2024-04-22 08:44:59

Having working in downtown at the Renaissance Center in the 1980s, this kind of thing was talked about and dreamed above, but I don't know anyone who really believed it was possible.

The new Gordie Howe bridge is almost complete (and that alone cleaned up so much just south of downtown). Younger folks are moving into the city. Construction everywhere downtown. It is not where it needs to be but this is an amazing start.

Question for current Detroiters (I go back time to time and have family there, but not plugged in anymore): With the auto industry probably never getting back to what it was, what new industries are driving the growth. Is it just shifting from the Suburbs to City and no net gain? (This is the story of Chicago the last 25 years) or is the area developing new companies, new industries, that can sustain the growth for the next 30 years as auto seems likely to ever thrive again like it once did up until say the mid-1960s. Something else - other industries - have to drove the organic growth and drive local GDP. I know you have this weird thing with Rocket and United Wholesale Mortgage (Detroit as mortgage capital of the US??? The Motor City >> The Mortgage City). What else? Note: The new bridge could be transformational in terms of logistics.

Real estate needs growth. New York got Finance/PE/Hedge Funds the last 30 years. SF had Tech (until now). Austin has Tech. Houston has Energy. Seattle has MSFT and AMZN (not to mention COST and SBUX). Miami has sun. Washington DC has been driven by the government growth. Boston has had Biotech and Asset Mgmt. You need a bell cow industry or hot companies to drive local growth and GDP and auto can't be it anymore. Thus I fear this is more temporal and driven by cannibalizing your own suburbs.




I split my time between Houston and Detroit metro
by backroads  (2024-04-23 09:38:28)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

I find the recent transformation of cities very interesting. Detroit and Houston are fascinating examples, Austin perhaps even more so. The article you posted is paywalled so I don't have the benefit of reading it. While I find the subject interesting, I've not properly looked into the data behind what is happening in these cities. So my thoughts are more impressions than analysis. I may spend the time to look into the Detroit situation more carefully just because it interests me.

For what its worth, I don't see the growth engine that will repopulate Detroit. I agree with johnnysalami that downtown is cannibalizing outlying neighborhoods in the city. My understanding is that the Detroit population is still shrinking, albeit not by a lot now, while the suburbs are stable to slightly growing. So I think the answer to your question is cannibalization. I believe the economic forecast for the area is stable to very slight growth. There does seem to be a healthy mix of sectors in the area to support this, not just automotive, but mortgage services, cross border trade, and services fueling most big cities it seems (eg health care, tech/innovation, financial, etc).

Downtown Detroit development is impressive, but it is nothing like Austin or Houston. We drove through Austin recently and I have not seen so many high rises being built at the same time in many years. There are several Detroit Hudson developments being built it seems. Houston also is seeing much more development than Detroit, albeit not concentrated in one area of the city. Of course these Texas cities are seeing strong population growth where Detroit is not.

Concentrating the Detroit development downtown has been quite smart in my opinion. All three major sports facilities are concentrated downtown, which is fabulous. The riverfront development is coming along nicely. Detroit downtown has a nice future I believe. We considered buying a condo or townhome there in 2021 when we started "reverse snowbirding". But unlike where we live "inside the loop" in Houston, Detroit downtown/midtown areas are still underdeveloped and quite variable block to block. We concluded we would do it if younger but wanted a more established area at our age.

One should not discount the value even today of the automotive industry to the Detroit economy. Yes it is not bringing in the large number of manufacturing jobs that it used to, but it still is brings in high paying administrative and technical positions. The automotive industry is changing but it will remain with us and its center in the US seems solid in Detroit. We live in Birmingham when in the area and there are well paid automotive people all over the place, some of whom are expats from Europe or Asia leading the US affiliate for their home based company.


Yea. Downtown has made a great comeback. But
by Johnnysalami  (2024-04-22 21:06:55)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Just about every neighborhood between downtown and the burbs is half vacant and looks like a demilitsrized zone. There massive swaths of land/neighborhoods (Detroit is 44 Sq miles) that will never "come back".

At its peak Detroit had over 2MM residents, now I think 700k. It'll never see a "Renaissance" outside of downtown and a handful of good remaining neighborhoods.

Ultimately I think Detroit's downfall (it was once the richest city in the US) was a product of globalization. That + racial issues.


I agree with 100% of what you said.
by domer4  (2024-04-24 00:37:14)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Born and raised in Livonia, parents both and raised in Detroit, and we all had to evacuate Livonia in July 1967 for fear of the riots spreading to the suburbs.

It never recovered and won't recover in my lifetime. You can build up the downtown all you want - but you need at least 500,000 residents to come back in and they need to be educated and motivated.


Two causes: Coleman and Young *
by Freight Train  (2024-04-23 06:19:57)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


How about Kwame Kilpatrick? Malice Green?
by domer4  (2024-04-24 00:38:26)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Heck that list could be hundreds and hundreds of words.


Bingo. *
by johnnysalami  (2024-04-23 08:13:56)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post