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Oklahoma State definitely has a higher likelihood of by KeoughCharles05

jumping us than Oklahoma, for three reasons:

1) Overall resume -- OK State's resume would simply be better. They'd have three quality wins, compared to OK's two.
2) Recency bias -- OK State's loss was earlier in the year.
3) Prior years -- There may be some tendency to not send ND to the playoff because "we've seen what they do once they get there." That inclination could cause some to "Give OK State a chance" but it wouldn't apply to Oklahoma.

I do think the best chance of the Big 12 champ having two losses is as you describe, but overall what's important is that the winner of this weekend's game lose the next one.