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Here's how it works by tf86

The CFP takes the top four teams. There are six automatic bids: one for each of the Power 5 champions, plus the Group of Five rep (highest-ranked conference champion from among the Group of Five).

In addition, there are three contract bowls (Rose, Sugar and Orange). Those bowl are contractually obligated to take representatives from certain conferences in years when they do not host a CFP semifinal. This year, the Orange Bowl hosts a semifinal game, but the Rose and Sugar do not. Contractual matchups are as follows:

Rose: Big Ten vs. Pac-12
Sugar: SEC vs. Big XII
Orange: ACC vs. highest-ranked eligible non-champion from the Big Ten/SEC, or Notre Dame.

Contract bowls take the conference champion if not selected for the CFP, otherwise they take the highest-ranked non-champion. A conference champion who is contractually obligated to a bowl game hosting the CFP semifinal and who is not selected for the CFP is placed in an Access Bowl. Thus, the ACC champ this year will play in an Access Bowl. G5 rep is placed in an Access Bowl unless selected for the CFP.

With the Peach and Fiesta Bowl not hosting the CFP this year, that means there will be two at-large selections remaining (3 if Cincinnati is selected for the CFP). They will take the two highest-ranked teams not otherwise selected for the CFP or a NY6 bowl.

The short answer to your question is that Oregon would be eligible for an Access Bowl if they did not win the Pac-12, but would have to be one of the top two (or perhaps three, but only if Cincinnati makes the CFP) teams remaining after the CFP and contract and AQ bids were awarded. I think that's a longshot (they'd probably have to win out in the regular season and then lose in the Pac-12 title game.) But I suppose I erred in saying that they have no chance. With that said, if Oregon were to make a NY6 Access Bowl, I think they'd be a stone-cold lock for the Fiesta Bowl (as opposed to the Peach Bowl), which would mean that they'd play Cincinnati if Cincinnati fails to make the CFP. So an even lesser chance of facing ND.