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Post being replied to

Yep, Cincy will plummet by NDAtty

They'll move totally out of the discussion.

Head-to-head is a legitimate consideration and one I think should be given weight, but there is a limit. No need to tell anyone here that ND's schedule is a disappointment, but it is nothing like Cincinnati's. If Cincy loses, I'd be very surprised if they don't take a huge drop in the rankings and fall below the Irish.

That being the case, I have a hard time accepting ND as a 50-50 shot at the playoffs. I haven't studied it in any detail, but I think the committee isn't going to be keen on including ND given the team's poor playoff showings so far and weak schedule this year. The committee may be making a pick between poor choices, but I think they'll err on the side of including a conference champ or extra SEC team over ND.

ND certainly won't have a "can't keep them out" resume. Maybe the committee simply won't have a decent other choice.