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the model is forward looking by thewagon
We won’t make it in over any 1 loss SEC, Big 10, Oregon, or even Big 12 team. If you run the model for all those teams and assume they win out, their odds are all higher than ND’s even if we also assume winning out. However all teams that fall into those categories have several difficult games remaining.
The model thinks its likely that Oregon and the big 12 leaders will each finish with 2 losses.
If that happens, we are likely in as long as UGA beats Alabama. We would also pass Cincy if Cincy loses, despite the head to head. We would also pass the big ten east champ if they dropped the champ game vs Wisconsin.
If we win out I think we are likely to make it unless Bama beats UGA. Then we would need all other power conference champs to have 2 losses, which seems less likely.