This is not a vent board or any other kind of therapy. Before you hit the POST button, ask yourself if your contribution will add to the level of discussion going on.

Important notes on articles:

• Please do not copy entire articles into your post; rather, provide links to them.. We are now links-only for ALL Internet publications. If only a small portion of the article pertains to your post, Fair Use allows you to copy those one or two paragraphs, provided you cite the author's name and the publication for which he writes. Otherwise, put a link in the HTTP Link box.
• Even if you're copying a reference to an article, provide a link to the page from which the article came. We're trying to cut down on duplicate topics, and the posting process will check the link to your article to see if it's already being discussed on this board. At the very least, you'll save yourself some grief on the boards.
• If your first reaction after reading the article you're going to share is the author is uninformed / stupid / a jerk / all of the above, it's not worth sharing with anyone. Not every article needs to be discussed. The more the hair-pulling articles are discussed (e.g. ESPN Page 2), the more the authors will write hair-pulling articles.

Post being replied to

My basic stats model shows our chances are ~ 40%. by Irishbuzz

I found this result surprising. I figured ND would have a much lower chance, but essentially we need 3 of 5 groups of teams ahead of us to lose:
- Bama (25% win out)
- Oregon (50% win out)
- Big10 (tOSU, MSU, Mich) (65% 1 team wins out)
- Big12 (OU, OkSt) (38% 1 team wins out)
- Cinci (38% win out)

Result Probabilities:
63% At least 3 groups lose
40% At least 3 groups lose and ND wins out
15% Cinci wins out and at least 3 other groups lose (both Cinci and ND make playoffs)

Assumptions:
I assumed probabilities for each team to win their remaining games. You may debate these, but small moves (10% adjustments) don't have much effect on the overall results.
Georgia is in the playoff even with a loss to Alabama and would not lose prior to the SEC championship game.
ND would not be ranked ahead of any grouping above that wins out.
ND would be ranked higher than any 2 loss team including Bama.
ND would be ranked higher than Cincinnati if they lost a game.

Personally, I don't think it's fair for ND to make the playoffs over Cincinnati if they lost one of their remaining games. Head to head winner with same number of losses deserves higher ranking.

Feel free to look at the spreadsheet plug in your own numbers.