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I think we have at least a 50-50 shot of making it in by garbageplate

We play two lousy teams, so there's an excellent chance that we will end the season with one loss. In essence, it becomes a game of knockout with the various conferences. The ACC is essentially out already, so ND would probably get in if three of the following events occur:

1. Cinci loses (likely because they are are mediocre and their schedule is such a farce that I assume they'd be behind ND despite the head-to-head win);
2. Oregon loses (likely since they are underdogs this week and might have to play Utah twice; Pac-12 Out);
3. Oklahoma and Oklahoma State both lose (Big 12 out);
4. Georgia beats Alabama (SEC limited to one team);
5. Ohio State beats Michigan State (thus ensuring that two of the Big Ten teams have two losses, so only one Big Ten team in).

There are even other scenarios that could land ND in the playoff (e.g., Big Ten East winner losing to Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship, leaving all Big Ten teams with 2 or more losses).

None of this is to say that we are worthy or that we'd even contend with a team like Georgia. I just think it's probable.