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UGA and ND are way behind the top four, if you use by G.K.Chesterton

ESPN's playoff predictor. UGA is only given a 28% chance of making the playoffs, while ND has only a 23% chance of making the playoffs. That's "making the playoffs", of course, not winning the national title.

You can play some "what-if" games at the link. For example, if ND wins all regular season games, we have a 10% chance of the title. If we lose only to Wisconsin, it goes down to 7%, and so on.