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I think you underestimate the difficulty of Tier 2-3 teams. by squid

Sagarin's 2003 ratings are that USC had the 19th most difficult schedule. LSU - which won both the SEC Championship and the BCS title game - finished with the 28th most difficult schedule.

What's the difference? LSU played Louisiana-Monroe, Western Illinois and Louisiana Tech. (All Tier 4 teams)

It's harder to play 13 teams that are at a minimum no greater than ~85% chance of victory than to play 11 games and 3 99% chance of victory games.