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Toledo returns ~95% of all production this year which is 1st by jimmypop
in the country. With the goofy covid rules, the national average is around 75%. In a normal year, it is about 67%. ND this year is at 55%.
Toledo went 4-2 last year with both losses by 3 points. So my guess is that their fans feel they have a solid team that returns basically everyone. They think they can play spoiler in week 1. I don't blame them. It's what you do when you're a decent group of 5 school.