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You're still willfully ignoring the 3rd option. by rockmcd

You make it sound as if there's an NCAA rule that forbids ND from playing a major bowl game against a peer or inferior program.

It's kind of a fluke that there aren't any data points in the BK era of playing a major bowl game against somebody other than the 3 programs that are clearly superior to ND.

It would have happened in 2012, 2018, and 2020 if ND had lost one regular season game.
It would have been a different Fiesta Bowl opponent in 2015 if the Sparty kicker had missed the field goal against OSU.
And there might have been a major bowl game in 2019 if we had made the shameful Michigan loss respectable or if ND had a more sensible tie-in with the ACC's Orange Bowl slot.

But alas, we only have data points for 2 of the options:
0-4 in major bowls vs Saban/Dabo/Meyer
5-1 in non-major bowls

To assume that Kelly would lose against a different opponent in a major bowl game because of his 0-4 record against Saban/Dabo/Meyer makes as little sense as assuming he'd win because of his 5-1 record in other bowl games.