Blake Snell
Median Fangraphs crowdsource projection: five years, $125 million
Reported asking price: $270 million
Reality: two years, $62 million (with an opt-out)
Cody Bellinger
Fangraphs projection: six years, $144 million
Reported asking price: $200 million+
Reality: three years, $80 million (with two opt-outs)
Jordan Montgomery
Fangraphs projection: five years, $105 million
Reported asking price: $170 million
Reality: one year, $25 million (with a vesting option for a second year)
Matt Chapman
Fangraphs projection: five years, $80 million
Reported asking price: $150 million
Reality: three years, $54 million (with two opt-outs)
By signing so late in the process, they are more likely to develop arm trouble while trying to get game-ready too fast.
Long-term $150-250M+ megadeals for decent players entering their 30s? No thanks Scott. Go see if you can find someone else to take you up on it.
Was it fear of being accused of collusion? Seems pretty ridiculous when Boras's demands are historically far more than other agents.
Montgomery's a good pitcher, but his next Cy Young vote will be his first.
Health is not a given for pitchers. They should go for the highest total compensation they can get regardless of AAV. "Betting on yourself" sounds cool until you blow your UCL.