But the probability of them losing would have been pretty high.
Still baffled that you can't draw the distinction between opponent's mistakes, which happen every single game at all moments of the game, and a horrible missed call by an official. By your tortured logic, Davidson really didn't even deserve to be winning anyway because Marquette made a bunch of mistakes, so they would've been "lucky" to win if they had held on.
Every team makes mistakes and a major part of winning is making fewer mistakes. If your opponent makes more than you, then you weren't lucky. You were better.