After watching HON-USA and MEX-JAM, I'd say neither of the two favorites are even locks to qualify. Mexico looked better than we did, but they were playing at home, in better conditions, and against a team that probably is slightly weaker than Honduras. I really could see Jamaica and Honduras qualifying automatically with either USA or Mexico picking up an automatic spot and the other playing New Zealand for a World Cup berth.
Bottom line: we need to pick up at least four points in our next two matches (Costa Rica, @Mexico). That likely means we need to defeat Costa Rica. If we have only three points or fewer after three games, it could be time to panic.