World Cup Qualifying formula:
by baloo88 (2013-02-06 23:28:41)
Edited on 2013-02-06 23:30:26
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1) Win at home
2) Draw away

After the first round of matches in the Hex, here's how the teams stand when judged against that standard:

Honduras (0)
Jamaica (0)
Costa Rica (0)
USA (-1)
Mexico (-2)
Panama (-2)

It's a great day to be Honduran or Jamaican, not so great for Americans and Mexicans. After today's matches, USMNT occupies the bottom spot in the Hex. Immediately above us, Mexico. That's just odd.


13 pts in the 5 H games, 4 pts in the 4 A games should do it *
by BillShakespeare  (2013-02-12 12:15:09)     Delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


Our formula went from suck to blow. *
by NDBass  (2013-02-08 14:18:15)     Delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


Mexico-Jamaica result is scary for us.
by Mr Wednesday  (2013-02-06 23:40:45)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

If you assume that Mexico will likely be the eventual winner of the hex, any points that anybody else takes from them are points that we have to overcome to attain qualifying position, especially points taken at the Azteca.


You may be right, but I took the tie as being good for us.
by G.K.Chesterton  (2013-02-07 16:47:39)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Pulls them closer to us.


In a vacuum, having one point taken out is good.
by Mr Wednesday  (2013-02-07 17:17:42)     Delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

My concern, though, is that Mexico will sweep the rest of their home games and qualify easily, and that one point for Jamaica will effectively give them a one point advantage on the rest of the field.

If I'm wrong, and we end up in a fight for position against Mexico, then that two points lost for them does indeed turn into a good thing for us.


I'm not sure it's safe to assume Mexico will finish first.
by baloo88  (2013-02-07 00:01:21)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

After watching HON-USA and MEX-JAM, I'd say neither of the two favorites are even locks to qualify. Mexico looked better than we did, but they were playing at home, in better conditions, and against a team that probably is slightly weaker than Honduras. I really could see Jamaica and Honduras qualifying automatically with either USA or Mexico picking up an automatic spot and the other playing New Zealand for a World Cup berth.

Bottom line: we need to pick up at least four points in our next two matches (Costa Rica, @Mexico). That likely means we need to defeat Costa Rica. If we have only three points or fewer after three games, it could be time to panic.


Any points lost at home are panic-worthy.
by Mr Wednesday  (2013-02-07 00:42:24)     Delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Maybe we can accept a draw to Mexico. Maybe.


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