If you assume that Mexico will likely be the eventual winner of the hex, any points that anybody else takes from them are points that we have to overcome to attain qualifying position, especially points taken at the Azteca.

Pulls them closer to us.

My concern, though, is that Mexico will sweep the rest of their home games and qualify easily, and that one point for Jamaica will effectively give them a one point advantage on the rest of the field.

If I'm wrong, and we end up in a fight for position against Mexico, then that two points lost for them does indeed turn into a good thing for us.

After watching HON-USA and MEX-JAM, I'd say neither of the two favorites are even locks to qualify. Mexico looked better than we did, but they were playing at home, in better conditions, and against a team that probably is slightly weaker than Honduras. I really could see Jamaica and Honduras qualifying automatically with either USA or Mexico picking up an automatic spot and the other playing New Zealand for a World Cup berth.

Bottom line: we need to pick up at least four points in our next two matches (Costa Rica, @Mexico). That likely means we need to defeat Costa Rica. If we have only three points or fewer after three games, it could be time to panic.

Maybe we can accept a draw to Mexico. Maybe.