A simple-minded weighting...
by Kbyrnes (2024-03-02 20:01:42)

In reply to: Something about that poll should make people question  posted by wearendhockey


...Take Trump's 48% gross percentage in the overall horse race and Biden's 43%, and divide each by the respective ratios of those identifying as somewhat/very conservative or liberal, and consider the results as sort of akin to a penetration ratio in the world of marketing.

Trump: 48% / 38% = 1.26
Biden: 43% / 25% = 1.72

This is favorable to Biden, but of course the favorable interpretation is subject to other factors, such as--how did the 37% who did not identify as somewhat or very conservative or liberal split? And then--how does the national voting populace split?

It's just a snapshot, of course, but I think the NYT poll should certainly be taken with the factoids you adduced from their poll in mind.


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