Latest NYT poll
by ndsapper (2024-03-02 13:43:30)
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President Biden is struggling to overcome doubts about his leadership inside his own party and broad dissatisfaction over the nation’s direction, leaving him trailing behind Donald J. Trump just as their general-election contest is about to begin, a new poll by The New York Times and Siena College has found.

With eight months left until the November election, Mr. Biden’s 43 percent support lags behind Mr. Trump’s 48 percent in the national survey of registered voters.

Only one in four voters think the country is moving in the right direction. More than twice as many voters believe Mr. Biden’s policies have personally hurt them as believe his policies have helped them. A majority of voters think the economy is in poor condition. And the share of voters who strongly disapprove of Mr. Biden’s handling of his job has reached 47 percent, higher than in Times/Siena polls at any point in his presidency.

The poll offers an array of warning signs for the president about weaknesses within the Democratic coalition, including among women, Black and Latino voters. So far, it is Mr. Trump who has better unified his party, even amid an ongoing primary contest.



Something about that poll should make people question
by wearendhockey  (2024-03-02 19:02:26)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

its validity. 38% of the respondents described themselves as "somewhat conservative" or "very conservative." Only 25% described themselves as either "somewhat liberal" or "very liberal." Seeing that I am surprised Biden comes off as good as he does. Additionally, 34% claim to lean towards the Democratic party, whereas 46% claim to lean towards the Republican party. Again, why would a poll that almost half of the respondents claim to lean towards Trump's party while only a third lean towards Biden's be anything BUT favorable to Trump?

A Gallup poll from January of this year showed an equal number of Americans identify as Democrats as Republicans, around 27%. Which means a nationwide poll should strive to question a similar number of people identify with either party to more accurately convey the sentiment of Americans.

I think the New York Times is far, far more interested in there being a horse race for the presidency than in bringing anyone accurate news.

There are a few things that beggar belief
by sprack  (2024-03-02 20:42:08)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

The race is tied among women?? You mean, for the first time since at least the second Reagan election there's no gender gap, and Donald Trump is the beneficiary? (For comparison, Biden won the women's vote by 11 points in the 2020 election)

23% of the black vote for Trump? A percentage that hasn't been approached for a Republican since Richard Nixon in 1960? For Donald Trump??

And if Trump is doing a better job of uniting his party, who are all these people voting for Nikki Haley?

Anyway, it's March 2. Four years and one week ago there were many people in the press, including Nate Cohn of that poll, talking about Bernie Sanders practically being a lock for the Democratic nomination. There is a long, long way to go and many trials, literally and figuratively, for the candidates.
If you're talking about the gender pay gap, yes that has
by krudler  (2024-03-03 10:56:21)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

been debunked multiple times (including even by left-wing outlets), and the arguments anyone has presented back here always fail to take into account the personal decisions and job choices people make. Taking average compensation between all men and all women is just about the laziest statistical methodology for this, yet the left continues to rely on this flawed analysis that a STATS 101 flunky could debunk.

If you're talking about the gap between Rs and Ds regarding female support, then I have no idea.

I am absolutely not talking about the gender pay gap
by sprack  (2024-03-03 15:42:28)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

In fact, it has absolutely nothing to do with this.

It's about voting results, the gap between Republican and Democratic support from women that's been there since at least 1984. This particular NYT poll seems to say it no longer exists which I, for one, think is preposterous.

Did you you read the post I was responding to?
Yes, I did. It didn't mention anything about
by krudler  (2024-03-03 18:03:55)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

gender, and one could reasonably assume that the lie that many on the left still believe about the gender pay gap applied to your statement about the "gender gap" in voting habits, as it's often cited as one of the reasons women vote Democrat instead of Republican. If I misread your post, apologies, your outrage is registered.

Didn't mention anything about gender?
by wearendhockey  (2024-03-03 20:26:57)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

Sprack specifically mentioned the so-called gender gap in voting. How is that not mentioning gender?

And the gender pay gap is hardly a lie. Many on the extreme left and extreme right make misleading statements about it, but it clearly exists. Not in the sense that women doing the exact same job as men are paid substantially less all other considerations being similar, as I have heard some on the far left claim still exists, but in the sense that occupations where the workforce is primarily women are perhaps undervalued.

He asked if I read the response to which he responded,
by krudler  (2024-03-04 10:00:47)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

which would have been your post. And no, you didn't mention gender.

Your second paragraph is simply an opinion. What exactly does "undervalued" mean? We have a primarily capitalist system, where market forces, supply, and demand dictate the value of things. If you're asking to artificially inflate the compensation of certain occupations that has nothing to do with the gender pay gap. Nothing is preventing women from entering fields where the workforce is primarily men, and vice versa.

A simple-minded weighting...
by Kbyrnes  (2024-03-02 20:01:42)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

...Take Trump's 48% gross percentage in the overall horse race and Biden's 43%, and divide each by the respective ratios of those identifying as somewhat/very conservative or liberal, and consider the results as sort of akin to a penetration ratio in the world of marketing.

Trump: 48% / 38% = 1.26
Biden: 43% / 25% = 1.72

This is favorable to Biden, but of course the favorable interpretation is subject to other factors, such as--how did the 37% who did not identify as somewhat or very conservative or liberal split? And then--how does the national voting populace split?

It's just a snapshot, of course, but I think the NYT poll should certainly be taken with the factoids you adduced from their poll in mind.
Cross tabs
by AquinasDomer  (2024-03-02 23:48:26)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

Have Biden up 4 among independents.

It also has 10% of dems preferring Dean Phillips in the primary which has borne out in 0 primaries.

Keeping all of that in Mind Biden needs to win the popular vote by 4 or more points, so he has ground to make up.
Not a surprise. Dismaying though it is,
by Sorin69  (2024-03-02 18:13:30)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

not everyone is horrified by letting him back into power.

We'll get precisely the government we deserve.. Unlike the alarmists,I'm pretty sure the system will survive. But we'll lose another four years to drift and denial and national impotence.

I don't know about you, but I don't deserve Trump back in *
by sprack  (2024-03-02 20:37:22)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

That's the way I feel. It just ain't fair that
by BeijingIrish  (2024-03-03 07:44:04)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

I might have to endure another 4 years of that asshole at my age. I should be able to enjoy my sunset years, surrounded by my children and grandchildren, drinking good wine, posting here. I dread the coming year. Asshole could mean Trump or Biden, btw.
I wish we could skip to Thanksgiving
by sprack  (2024-03-03 15:44:58)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

Hell, we have a crummy home schedule, I could even skip the football season until the USC game.
How about going back?
by BeijingIrish  (2024-03-03 16:09:36)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

I could re-live 1966, 1973, 1977, or 1988 again.

For me, '66 was a GREAT year.
by Barney68  (2024-03-03 16:25:07)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

The great aerospace depression of the 1970s makes me unwilling to go back to that time. Sometime in the late '70s, probably '78 or '79, that ND informed me that the pittance I was able to donate each year was insufficient. This at a time when writing a check for $5 was a serious financial decision.

It was the 1990s before that insult healed enough for me to return to the fold. The scar remains and ND does not get anywhere near the contributions that it might as a result.