Similar situation, just also down an additional field goal (down 11 instead of 8, but same principle applies). Actually makes sense mathematically.
It makes sense if you believe in big miracles and realize we probably wouldnt fare well in OT The whole issue of what to late in the fourth quarter and you score a TD when down by 14 is a dividing point between the analytics and traditionalist crowds
whereby both sides are overly entrenched in their own dogma that they come to opposite conclusions, each of which is wrong.
The analytics folks are correct from mathematical assessment BUT because they can't quantify momentum, they disregard it entirely. Football is often a game of passion and as such, sometimes the irrational choice may be the most direct path to success.
I think the best bet is to initially go for 1. Then on the 2nd touchdown, lineup to go for 1 and use a Fake Field Goal play to get the 2.
(With the assumption, you will score exactly 1 more TD and 1 more FG and they won’t score again, which is fair given there were only a few minutes left):
If you go for two after the first TD, you have a 50% chance of winning the game in regulation, a 25% chance of going to OT and a 25% chance of losing in regulation. That equates to a 62.5% chance of winning.
If you kick the extra point, you have a 100% chance of going to OT. That equates to a 50% chance of winning.
Obviously the above assumes an extra point is 100% successful, a 2-point is 50% chance of success and OT is 50% chance of winning and none of those percentages are exactly that, but that’s the principle in a nutshell.
If the initial extra point is kicked, you still have the option to go for two after the next TD, but it's a 50/50 win-lose (assuming only an added field goal) in regulation. Of course, if the two point conversion fails again then a field goal is moot and another TD would be required.
One potential advantage to attempting two after the first TD is that it informs later decisions - if it's missed you have to try for two the next time, if that is missed then adding a field goal won't help and another TD is required.
It would be interesting to see the full breakdown of all of the various options and expected outcomes. I'm not motivated to chase them at this point in time, but maybe later.
It uses an NFL average of 94% successful conversion kicks and 48% two-point conversion successes and 50% win rate in overtime. You can change these success rates. The logic assumes you score the next TD without the opposition scoring.
Here are your four cases for attempting a kick first (it covers the bad choice of successful kick followed by 2 point attempt later on)
1. Successful kick, followed by successful kick = OT would occur 88% (.94*.94)
2. Successful kick, missed kick = loss, 6%
3. Missed kick, successful 2 point try = OT = 3% occurrence
4. Missed kick, missed 2 point try = loss = 3%
With these success rates, the NFL two kick scheme will lead OT 91% of the time and victory about 45% of the time.
The analytics guys have these 4 cases:
1. Successful 2 point, successful kick = win, 45%
2. Successful 2 point, missed kick = OT 3%
3 Unsuccessful 3 point, successful 2 point = OT 25%
4. Unsuccessful 2 point tries both times = loss 27%
You'll have outright wins almost half the time and win half of the games going to overtime for an expected win percentage of 59% (45 + 3/2 + 25/2)
The big However is that no coach wants to face his team, the press, the fans or the owners by choosing to go for 2 and losing because of it.
the first time. Interesting information.
That’s true, but either way, it’s 50% if you kick the extra point after the first TD (whether it’s because you kick the XP after the second TD also to go to OT or because you go for it after the second TD). It’s 62.5% if you go for it after the first TD.
In general, I think analytics would often indicate to go for a 2-point conversion in more 4th quarter situations than people would realize. Of course, you should basically never go for two when you’re up 11 (2014 Northwestern) but that didn’t stop a former certain coach from doing it…
Practice a 2 point play in an actual game situation.