You say you like wins, not moral victories, and I think we can all agree on that, but moral victories at schools with inferior talent, facilities, etc. are the indicators, in my opinion, that they will become victories when they become coaches on an even playing field.
As for "at the time the games were played" you are absolutely correct, but there is no better indicator that I have the ability to assess how good a team is. There will be some misses, like us being in top 10 for a stretch, but as a whole it is the best indicator of how big a game it was.
Urban would not be on this scale prior to his work at Florida. I have not found any pattern of recognizing the small school coaches who have great results against small schools and will go on to succeed at the next level. They all look the same to me (Dennis Franchione, Urban Meyer, Brian Kelly, Chris Peterson). Which is why I don't think we should consider it for a coaching search when we are in a position where we can't afford to miss again. Are you potentially going to miss out on the next great coach? Yes, but as we've proven, we don't need the next great coach. We just need a really good one.
Thank you for you're thoughtful responses, I appreciate the back and forth in a constructive manner. This wasn't done as an exercise to rank my opinion, but as a thinking person, and a student of the game, i decided to look for patterns and try to assess the candidates.
I'd much rather have a Proven Coach from a Proven Program, but they are hard to get. If we do have to go the the next best thing, these are the candidates we should look at based on their grade. I don't believe we should look below a B on this list.