last year's bowl game. A&M with Johnny Manziel. Blinded by a record? You can't be serious. 10-4 and 9-3 at Duke is simply unheard of in the modern era of football. That's not blindly look at a record, that's considering the history of the program. The last person to coach Duke to 8 wins is consistently considered one of the best coaches in football, including a National Championship at Florida.
Add to that, Cutcliffe was a fantastic OC who helped Tennessee win two SEC Championships and a National Championship. Fitzgerald has been a coordinator...nowhere.
There is no evidence whatsoever that Fitzgerald would have more success at Notre Dame. None.
We're "getting lost in the wood" because there are some fundamental issues with the reasoning that you've included in your analysis.