FWIW, the advanced analytics really like ND in this matchup
by ndzippy (2019-12-27 16:17:06)
Edited on 2019-12-27 16:20:48

In reply to: It’s ISU’s Super Bowl...  posted by Scoop80

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Sagarin's golden mean approach favors ND by 6.64 points. ESPN's FPI favors ND by 6.27. FEI likes ND by 6.6.

ThePredictionTracker.com has collected 55 predictions from various models; here are the highlights:

- Mean Prediction: ND by 6.51 points
- Median Prediction: ND by 6.64 points
- Min Prediction: ND loses by 0.95 points
- Max Prediction: ND wins by 13.40 points

Of the 55 prediction models:

- 7 have ND winning by double-digits
- 25 have ND winning by 7 points or more
- 46 have ND covering the point spread
- 54 have ND winning the game

In other words, ND should absolutely win this game (this level of consensus is pretty rare).

If the names were stripped off of these two teams and the betting numbers stayed where they are, the pros would be hammering ND +3.5. The fact that that's not happening, and that the point spread has been stable for so long, is pretty weird. This might be one of those cases where Vegas just knows something that the public doesn't.

If you'd like, you can check the numbers out yourself at the link below.



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