QBs tend to have a high washout rate, so it wouldn't surprise me if Kiel was over-hyped, but I have no knowledge about how well he's done save for the B/G game last year.
A lot of highly ranked QBs don't start playing really well until their upperclass years, in fact I would argue that most don't so I don't try to judge them early on.
Directly to your points:
> I don't think Kiel should be given every chance to win the starter role when you have a clear #1 with even more potential as you have to craft the offense around a QB, so I don't think he would be given a chance and his comments from January say that clearly.
> Even if he were to be given a chance, I doubt he'd win it simply because Golson now has great game experience, a year's headstart and has played very well.
I suspect shorty will get Heisman consideration in the next two years and his detractors will become his biggest fans.