just plain liars. Disembodied stats such as these mean virtually nothing.
figures for yards per passing attempt is below (in alphabetical order for last season):
Air Force
Alabama
Baylor
Clemson
Florida State
Georgia
Georgia Tech
Kansas State
Louisiana-Lafayette
Louisville
Michigan
Navy
Northern Illinois
Oklahoma State
Pittsburgh
San Jose State
South Carolina
U$C
Texas
By statistically significant, I mean the numbers the above teams posted were greater than the national average plus one standard deviation (using the stats at NCAA.org which, unfortunately, include those cupcake games we love to discuss).
they charted only 5 games. Notice how Golson's completion percentage is 71.4% in two categories. I'd bet a lot of money that he was 5 of 7 (=.71428), at least in the deep throw category. Maybe he was 10 of 14 or something in the shorter one. Golson is a surprisingly accurate thrower. If he gets better at making the right reads, he can be really good.
is that it doesn't account for offensive personnel. I'm pretty darn sure, that when Kelly had Michael Floyd to work with, he through a lot more bubble and smoke screens. We didn't really have 'that guy' in 2012 that could make the first tackler miss like Floyd could, hence a pretty big drop off in WR screens from the previous season.
It is also not random.
Which makes it tough to generalize beyond the games watched/charted.
they pass, the passes go for more yards. Kelly treats short passes like runs.
Lots of 5-9 and 10-14, but the kinds of short passes that are usually conceptually runs are 0-5 and <0.
How about less than 5?
And do these stats track the actual"distance in air" or is it distance in air plus whatever our receivers can run after they catch it?
I posit that we had a high number of passes behind the line, plus passes on the sideline 10 yards or less.
Our passing game was less than explosive.
we had a high number of passes behind the line.
Relatively speaking, it's exactly the opposite, we had a very low number of passes behind the line (and also ahead of it but within five yards).
What percentage of passes did we have that were 10 yards or less?
And I would also bet that our receivers' average yards after the catch was very, very low.
The one I linked is Golson vs. McCarron only. If you read the article in the head-of-thread post, it has comparisons with a large number of other teams.
I share your bet that our YAC was very low this season.
| Yards from LOS | ||||||||||
| <0 | 0-4 | 5-9 | 10-14 | 15-19 | 20-24 | 25-29 | 30-34 | 35-39 | 40+ | |
| McCarron | 15.4% | 29.4% | 19.5% | 11.4% | 9.9% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.6% |
| Golson | 11.6% | 13.8% | 25.4% | 23.9% | 13.8% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
And perhaps this is just a slip of the keyboard on your part, but it's important to note that the yardage categories don't reflect the result of all passing plays (edit: or even the result of completed passes) - they're only how far the ball traveled in the air on completed passes. When you say "50% of our passes were for less than 9 yards," that implies that half of our passing plays resulted in gains of less than 9 yards. They may very well have, but this table doesn't do anything to prove that one way or the other. I would expect, actually, that more than half of ours and anyone else's passing plays would go for less than 9 yards per attempt as an average of 8 yards per attempt would be excellent for anyone.
Especially when a significant number of passes were completed short of the 1st down line on 3rd down.
you don't say.
To answer your most important question, yes it's distance in the air, rather than distance gained by the play. I think you'd be surprised at the results. ND threw less passes <0 and 0-4 than Alabama and Stanford. In fact, ND was towards the bottom in those two categories.
ND: 11% and 14%
Stanford (with Hogan): 26% and 29%
Alabama: 15% and 29%
Oklahoma: 20% and 22%
I should also note that Alabama had although they didn't throw deep often, Alabama had very high success rates when they did. Also, Golson was pretty good on intermediate passes 5-15 yards, struggled 15-19, but was pretty good 20-24. I'm not sure what that means, although i'm not surprised at his <0 numbers as he missed on a lot of screens last year.
One large caveat is that the sample sizes varies for the different teams. ND's data only includes five games, while Alabama's includes 12 and Stanford's includes 10.
think speaks to that, if the study data doesn't.
As I said, Golson pounded the short-intermediate throws, and I don't think we had a lot of YAC this season. From a YPA point of view, an Alabama throw a yard behind the line of scrimmage that gets carried for 15 counts for more than an ND throw 7 yds past the line of scrimmage that gets stopped for no additional gain.
I know spread folks like to use behind-LOS and near-LOS throws as pseudo-runs, but the data from last season (at least, the ND games that were charted) indicates that Kelly was using those short throws less than most teams.
the sample size is 5 games, so I'm not sure what to make of it. I suspect we're headed back the other way this year, but with Martin in Kelly's ear, he might be able to influence him. I did like that we were trying to hit some deep patterns later in the year. Clearly the Oklahoma game is missing.
Alabama, as noted below, uses the run to set up the pass and makes a relatively large number of throws down field off play action (as Lou did.) I think they were 3rd in the analysis and 1st in deep completion rate (those numbers are phenomenal.)
Their receivers averaged 13,15,16 and 23 YPC, while some of that may be YAC, Alabama took a lot of shots downfield.
| Yards from LOS | ||||||||||
| <0 | 0-4 | 5-9 | 10-14 | 15-19 | 20-24 | 25-29 | 30-34 | 35-39 | 40+ | |
| McCarron | 15.4% | 29.4% | 19.5% | 11.4% | 9.9% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.6% |
| Golson | 11.6% | 13.8% | 25.4% | 23.9% | 13.8% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
http://espn.go.com/college-football/player/_/id/515409/everett-golson
I'm just suggesting that the higher YPA isn't caused by Alabama taking more risks downfield.
Bama a screen team? The negatives make no sense.
FTR, Kelly has said short passes are runs. Saban has said he wants explosive passing plays.
No one made up anything.
Thanks.
Talking out of your ass. It just seemed like you were ignoring the chart because of what Saban and Kelly had said. Between words and hard data, I always choose the data.
so I have some bias there.
Agree with your post with a big caveat. always question the origin, completeness and applicability of data and make sure it squares with reality.
I think the above sample is small.
I would hope that we've all learned that what coaches say is not always what they do...
shots down the field after running at you. More so than most coaches. That approach gives him, generally, a high success rate. Holtz did that as well.
They also throw a lot of screens, which while technically passes are designed to thwart a passing rush. That also makes the deep pass more effective. Alabama also has their QBs check down and throws designed dump passes off a deep look. I'd be curious to know how many of those 0-4 were check downs vs designed short passes.
Their receivers average 15,16,24, and 13 ypc.
ND's average 13,13,15 and 10 ypc.
That's an extra 4+ yards per receiver.
Overall, they throw less and are simply more effective through the air. YPA shows that clearly.
The title games was 9.4-7.5.
McCarrons deep pass completion rate is very high
They could be incorporating more designed short passes. Regardless, even though I like Kelly, I'm not a fan of the offense as it is and the original statement is still true.
"Saban and Holtz (Holtz when he ran) are run heavy, but when they pass, the passes go for more yards. Kelly treats short passes like runs."
I think you feel that way because Saban and Holtz did so effectively, not because they did it frequently.
I can't believe that you are using less precise data to argue against the charting that these guys did.
>Both Saban and Holtz (Holts prespread) are run heavy. Check
>When they do pass they go for more yards. Alabama's went for an average of 9.34 to ND's 7.56 to be exact. This is a fact. Check
>Kelly treats short passes like runs. That's philosophical and isn't in any data. He doesn't distinguish between them in playcalling.
Yards per attempt isn't an accurate measure of whether or not a coach likes to throw the ball downfield. Completing three swings passes that go for 10 yards each yields a higher YPA than taking three shots thirty yards downfield and completing one. The fact is that Saban doesn't take many downfield shots, but when he did last year, McCarron was very effective.
> Their passes go for more yards 1.2 per pass to be exact. That was what I posted. The data backs that up perfectly as the argument is derived from the data.
> I also posted that Saban "likes to throw the ball deep downfield" is qualitative and from Sabans lips.
The first isn't used to prove the second, they're to be used together and I think they tell a story. You may not.
As far as data backing up deep downfield, there's an argument in there. 7% of Bama's passes went 30 yards or more and they had a high success ratio. 2.2% of NDs were deep downfield passes. That's 3x, not dispositive, but not contradictory.
The evidence shows the vast majority of their passes are short. In fact they throw more around the line of scrimmage than some spread teams like ND or Baylor. But, you're taking a YPA number (that includes incompletions and YAC) to prove that when Saban throws he likes to throw deep.
By the way, even Yards Per Completion (also including YAC) is basically identifical. 13.06 for McCarron versus 12.86 for Golson. But hey, Saban once said something about liking to take deep shots, so that must be his approach.
dumps and checks. They also attack vertically off play action.
The data doesn't refute that. They like to get big yards off their passing game and they succeed as opposed to throwing most of be time. Kelly doesn't delineate between short passes and runs in play calling.
All of the above be true from what I can see. If you don't trust me, ask the coaches.
It's not like this is some state secret, it's been the same for awhile.
But scheme-wise, it isn’t much different from the same formula that has worked for Saban since his arrival in Tuscaloosa – a steady diet of a physical running game, mixed in with short throws and deep patterns usually set-up by the play-action.
Alabama's running game has set up McCarron all season. He leads FBS in pass efficiency (173.1), and play action has been the key.
McCarron completes nearly 70 percent of his passes thrown after a run fake and is averaging an SEC-best 11.9 yards per attempt. He has not thrown an interception off play-action in 130 attempts, with his last one coming in last season's loss to LSU.
McCarron's average throw after a run fake travels 11.7 yards downfield, and he completes 76 percent of his deep throws that are set up by play-action. On such passes, he has eight touchdowns and no interceptions in 21 attempts.
As he was against Georgia, Cooper has been McCarron’s favorite target on those downfield throws, catching 11 of 14 passes thrown 20 yards or longer when he was the target. Eight of those receptions were off play-action, including four touchdowns.
http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/59373/aj-mccarron-mesmerizing-in-play-action
This season, the Crimson Tide has had 44 20-plus yard pass plays and 17 of those were touchdowns.
play analysis that those guys put together.
Why waste time actually looking at the plays called when you have quotes on your side?
them.
you refuse to look at the data that refutes your point and keep hammering away with the same stuff and then close with "ask the coaches."
You stick to your guns; I like that about you (not being sarcastic).
what a coach says is actually way more important than what he actually does.
yet you are sticking with the "when they pass, they like to go deep" argument.
Check.
> Their passes go for more yards 1.2 per pass to be exact. That was what I posted. The data backs that up perfectly as the argument is derived from the data.
> I also posted that Saban "likes to throw the ball deep downfield" is qualitative and from Sabans lips.
The first isn't used to prove the second, they're to be used together and I think they tell a story. You may not.
As far as data backing up deep downfield, there's an argument in there. 7% of Bama's passes went 30 yards or more and they had a high success ratio. 2.2% of NDs were deep downfield passes. That's 3x, not dispositive, but not contradictory.
again next year. It will his 4th year. Time to step up, especially with the crappy playcalling. It will hurt offensive recruiting big time if ND's offense sucks.
Etc .It will work better
It will suck if I have to change the channel when ND is in the red zone. Recruiting will suffer.
its so QB dependent, youll be vulnerable if your QB is off. I'd like to see a more balanced approach, but I doubt it'll happen.
I think the offense will average 32-35 ppg next year.
My other concern is whether or not it will get better against better/elite defenses. I'm not optimistic on that front.
as Kelly's said that offense is the most like his.
I hate the offense, but it's hard to argue you can't win with it.
I think Kelly will get back to the NC (or close) and have a Mack moment
They wonder why Mack Brown tries to run it up the middle when they have the athletes to run outside. It's because his attempt to re-instate power running failed that their fanbase doesn't think very much of it.
are apoplectic about OU's passing fancy.
Lou was always under pressure to throw more.
Fans always want the opposite.