I suspect that Kizer's was mostly a business decision, and factored in the possibility that he could get leapfrogged next year by guys who weren't yet eligible for this year's draft. There's also the continued risk of injury.
If Kelly had been replaced, no matter who his replacement was going to be, that would be a new voice in his ear for 2017, to be replaced by another new voice in his ear for 2018 on his first NFL team. If he's already a minimum 2nd round pick, sticking around for a coaching change probably has more downside risk than upside.
I agree that Kelly's poor track record with QBs created a risk if he stayed, but I think starting over with a new coaching staff would have just created a different type of risk, which he'd also be inclined to avoid.
a factor in his decision from all accounts. I never heard about him throwing notes at meetings, but that sounds like a pretty massive breakdown of respect.
Kizer never lacked confidence, so he may have gone anyway.
course the same thing I criticize others for doing. Er.
Kelly with wadded up notes as he strolled into the meeting room. Doh!
We need more white kinda guys!
They should go. Especially if they're a RB, WR, LB, or DB.
Between the current rookie wage scale and the many and great risks inherent to football, I think it's foolish to return and turn down $1M+ / year and a guarantee of at least half that (the guarantee percentage gets pretty small after the 2nd round). There's just too much that can go wrong in the interim.
Get in the league. Get to your 2nd contract a year earlier. And then get out with as much of your health as you can (and come back to get your degree during offseasons)
There is actually a large gap between first and second round money the last time I checked and that is money you can't make up until your second contract-if you get a second contract.
If you believe you are a year away from being a first rounder, the risk reward is very favorable, especially for a QB like Kizer who might have developed into a top five, top ten pick.
Last time I did the math, second rounders were leaving close to $15 million on the table.
"According to Spotrac, the 2016 first pick is expected to sign a contract with the Los Angeles Rams worth an estimated $27,729,654. The Denver Broncos 31st pick will sign a contract worth an estimated $8,217,802. The difference between the first and last pick in the first round is worth an estimated $19,511,852."
There is also a major difference in guaranteed money between rounds.
than a million.
Still, these guys have the NFL as their dream, and I would not substitute my
judgement for theirs.
The players I dont get are those that leave early for non-guaranteed late round/FA
money, just to be practice squad punching bags, that could be cut without pay on
a moments notice. You have to really hate college or your coach for that.
He lost 10+ million even with his insurance. Insurance is tax free, so for the sake of argument every $1 is worth $2 of taxable income. Smith got somewhere between $1 and $4 million of insurance. That's 2 to 8 million of salary equivalent. He then got a 2nd round contract that I don't remember his salary, but perhaps as much as $2 million per year with incentives and maybe a 2 year deal. Net that out he got $4 million salary and 2 to 8 million equivalent in insurance payments. 6 - 10 million total.
As a top 5 pick his signing bonus alone would have been 10+ million, he would have had guaranteed payments of 10-20 million more in his original contract. He lost at least 10 million because he came back to ND and got injured in spite of his insurance.
A lessor talent would have had a lessor insurance policy and the magnitude of the loss would have been the same for them. For example they would have ended up with 2 million with insurance instead of 4 - 6 million sans being injured and drafted in the 2nd round. The net effect is they too would have lost about 50% because they came back and got injured.
In this era, a player that can get drafted in the 1st round should leave virtually every single time and most that can be drafted in the 2nd round or better should also leave. A few that could move from 2nd round to top 10 pick perhaps should roll the dice, but Smith is a strong argument of why that risk is very high. He likely was the same pick or slightly higher a year earlier as where he ended up -- but sans being damaged goods he would have gotten a better initial contract worth more than what he actually ended up with. Any way you slice it he lost money.
You can always get your degree in parallel with playing in the NFL.
for full value. Jaylon Smith who was a much higher rated prospect going into his Jr. year is going to collect less than $800,000. The insurance money is a fraction of what these could potentially make.
...drafted in the second round, which enabled him to sign a contract with a couple million dollars guaranteed on top of his insurance payout. There's no reason to believe he wouldn't have collected the full $5 million had he fallen farther.
But you're correct that it's still less than what he would have made as a high first rounder. I'm not a fan of skipping bowl games once you've decided to stay, but I don't fault anyone for bolting a year early and getting paid.
at best of what he would have received had he come out a year early. The insurance does not cover the actual lost revenue. It is better than a stick in the eye, but it is nowhere near enough money to cover the actual risk.
"But you're correct that it's still less than he would have made as a high first rounder."
ago. That's why the logic today is different. Tim Brown wasn't risking 20-30 million by coming back an extra year. He was risking 2-5 million. A lot of money, but nowhere near the same risk and calculus.
Look at it this way, Smith lost 10 million by getting injured -- minimum. Whack half of that for taxes. He's down 5 million net. At 5% that's an infinite stream of $250k per year that he lost. In his lifetime, assume he lives to 75, he lost that 250k / year annuity for at least 52 years. $13 million. Also, that 250k basically is enough for him to be a top 5% earner forever. A really big cushion for life -- gone. Arguably, he could have played 3 years, sucked, retired and never worked another day of his life -- living off that lost 250k annuity.
At 1 to 4 million -- the risk Brown was taking -- that's 500k to 2 million lost. An annuity of 25k to 100k. Better than $0, but not retirement money. He still has to work after football. So, roll the dice and come back another year and see if you can move up a level whereby you do have an annuity rolling in whereby you have the option to never work again the rest of your life.
He had a ton of name recognition after his junior year. He might have even gone late first round given his combine numbers would have been the same either way.
if they're in the first three rounds or so, especially as a skill position player and especially what is known about the medical side effects of the sport now vis a vis 1987. Tim Brown didn't face a severely restricted rookie wage agreement and a league in which skill players, even good ones, were commodities.
particularly at the professional level, even if we wish it were not so. It has changed a tremendous amount even since I was a kid in the early- and mid-1990's.
Most important is that medical and economic information is readily available to all players as transparent as possible at virtually every step of the process.
Brown would've been selected at probably roughly the same spot had he come out his junior year, but given the variables, he would've lost $10 - $40 million over the course of his career if the 2017 paradigm were implemented. That is generational money, and anyone from any school - ND, Alabama, Stanford, USC, or whoever else - would be a fool to not look at the economics and probabilities and figure that out. Do you think Will Fuller didn't love ND? Because he looked at something roughly approximating the same odds as Brown and decided it was in his best interest to eschew a last year. Ditto Golden Tate. Michael Floyd would've been gone had it not been for personal problems. It doesn't matter who the coach is, and I don't care for Kelly one iota. Over the long run, they are self-interested homo economicus actors who are interested in maximizing their economic value through whatever means possible, and Notre Dame is just a means to that end, as hard as it is for some of us to see that. As ACross has said many times on here, you win by getting players who view ND as not necessarily the best lifestyle opportunity, but the best football opportunity, and those kids will be going to pro in droves as juniors no matter where they go to school.
And to answer your other questions, yes, wide receivers and running backs have become commodized in the NFL with the exception of a very small handful of extraordinary athletes that number roughly ten or twelve in the entire league. That Theo Riddick is the prototype for modern NFL running backs should be your answer. The compensation and draft structure is plainly obvious.
The major difference between a Kentucky basketball and a Notre Dame football is the fact that the NBA deigns that players can be drafted a year out of high school and the NFL deigns three years. We would become a Duke basketball - utilizing the one and done just as much - if we had the coaching pipeline to do it if we thought we could. To pretend otherwise is lying to yourself.
Especially for QB's: Do the opposite of what Brian Kelly says.
I was astounded to read that Kizer was completely unaware that he was inconsistent with foot placement prior to the snap. You were around great coaches...doesn't SOMEBODY have the job to watch stuff like this?
at ND. I understand that may not be the best thing for some athletes. The more you play in college the greater the chance to get injured.
Clausen probably could have used an extra year in college. I can't see that it would have done any good with Kelly coaching.
Who knows who ND would have hired. If they bought in Bob Stoopes or Meyer, that would have been a big upgrade that Kizer could have benefitted from. If they bring in the next Bob Davie or Ty Willingham, he should run away.
If they are NFL 1st round talent, it's hard to argue they should stay other than a hope for a National Title. Other than 2012, those hopes have been crushed by the end of September most of the last 2 + decades.