I attended FSU, so I've watched a lot of FSU football over the years. Historically, Fisher's teams are good for one brain fart a season (usually against NCST). This year, the team has had a series of mini brain farts throughout the season. Surprisingly, FSU has been able to rally, or survive, each of these brain farts.
Bowl games are a wild card. I don't have anything tangible to point to that proves that FSU will win. It is just that kind of season for FSU, the kind of season where all of the breaks are going their way. It takes a bit of good mojo to win any game, and it appears that FSU has the mojo on their side this year.