I just caught up on this week's episode, and yes, we may be the only two board members watching. I think you make some good points and while this season was certainly better than last season, I'm not sure that it's been that good of a season on it's own. While I don't intend to get into a full review of the mistakes, I think a key issue was that the desire to prevent a returning player from winning appeared to cloud too many players judgment for far too long.
You raise some good points on the current state of affairs. I believe that Malcolm had to be the current favorite followed by Denise, probably with Lisa in 3rd. I've predicted to my wife for several weeks that Denise would win kit all, but if I were actually handicapping the show, she'd be second to Malcolm.
Going into this week's show I would have agrees that the best move for Scupin and/or Lisa would have been to team up w/ Abi to vote out Denise, but I did find Lisa's argument of hoping that Denise could beat Malcolm in the next immunity somewhat compelling. However, given my assumed probabilities of winning above, I don't believe that would help Lisa or Scupin much.
I was initially thinking that Scupin/Lisa's best move next week was sticking together, but I think both would be better off going w/ both Malcolm and Denise. I believe they'd both be long shots regardless, but at least in that case, they'd be preventing their former tribe from splitting their vote and attempting to split the Malcolm/Denise vote from their non-tribe members. It's probably not a winning move either way, but I think their chances are better this way.