Forecasting a Strong Resurgence

Phil Steel recently projected Notre Dame to finish 7th and tabbed the Irish as a dark horse for the National Championship. Steele notes that the Irish have 15 returning starters and lost 38 starts due to injury last year (15th most in nation) on young team he thought would finish higher last season. Whether Steele is correct or not, anyone looking at the fundamentals of this Irish team has to expect dramatic improvement this year. Notre Dame this season can be the surprise that Penn State was last season.

The Irish special teams made a quantum leap last year showing that Brian Polian can do more than recruit (at which he's one of the best in the country.) Our kicking game turned from putrid to very good. Punting was consistent and the return games finally showed signs of life.

On defense the Irish will have one the most talented backfields in the country. The linebacking corps finally has an influx of athleticism and the front four, while young, has a lot of talent. But it's the coaching change upfront that and at the coordinator position that could have the most impact. Hart and Young give our young lineman a fighting chance. Oliver was not thought highly of by players or coaches. If they can staunch the run inside (and our defensive backs should allow us to overplay the run) this defense could be very good. Moving Tenuta to full-time defensive coordinator was a smart move. The two-headed approach to coordinating the defense was misguided. Ironically, known for blitzing, Tenuta's teams have been very good run stoppers.

On offense Charlie's taken control back and given his nature, this is a smart move. I expect Clausen to dramatically improve his TD to Int ratio this year, in fact I think he'll have a breakout year. The line is finally matured and is receiving new coaching from Verducci who appears to be steeped in fundamentals. I love the idea of moving Olsen down to center as Wenger has been a weak spot. Having Trevor Robinson on the line will give the Irish another road grader type run blocker. Duncan, by all reports, is solid to very good. But it's the skill positions that excite me the most. Along with Clausen, we're going to have one of the best receiving corps in the country and there's little doubt that Rudolph will join the long tradition of stellar Irish tight ends. Finally the addition of Tony Alford as running backs coach will pay big dividends. Armando Allen looked like a different running in the Blue-Gold game. If he can control 4.3 speed, I think he'll finally start breaking longer runs and be much more productive in the Weis offense all-around.

As much as I've criticized Weis, it's fact that the Irish were bereft of senior talent the last few years. I'll trot out this graph one more time to show the dramatic upswing in older talent for the Irish.

Seems I've been equally attacked for being pro-Charlie and anti-Charlie and the truth is I'm neither. I want him to succeed, can see many shortcomings, but can also see where he's come in with unusual circumstances.

More than a backer or anti anything I'm a trend follower and the biggest slacker who follows college football. All I do is watch popular opinion form and feed on itself until it over shoots the mark and then I write a contrarian article based on facts that don't match with reality.

"Things are true, until they're not." A smart man once said this... okay it was me. We all aspire to improve, I seek humility.

Popular opinion is almost always wrong, simply because by the time a thought has permeated the masses, the assumptions that underpin that thought have almost certainly changed. If you're looking for a college football indicator of this phenomenon, it's this, by the time ESPN is on the bandwagon, the wagon is already at or near its apex.

And this long-winded introduction applies to Notre Dame football how? Because most experts are missing the mark on Notre Dame by looking at the last two years. The underneath fundamentals are strong, the schedule is favorable and despite Weis's shortcomings as a motivator and in emphasizing scheme over fundamentals, it's hard to see the Irish not going to the BCS this year. And if they build momentum and start believing in themselves, this team is talented enough to win every game.

As I posted on Rock's House, expect the Irish to get a lot of love the next two months. There's too much talent on this team for even Lee Corso to miss.

Clausen At the Head of the Class

(The Rock Report) - So, I've read some "writers" and listened to some "look at me" talking heads opining about how Jimmy Clausen has been a disappointment so far. I can't imagine what their benchmark is other than their own fantasies.

At the same stage in his career, the NFL's number one draft pick, Matthew Stafford, had a 128.9 rating, threw for 2,523 yards, 19 touchdowns, 10 interceptions and for a 55.7% completion percentage. And that was on a Georgia team that averaged 4.6 yards per carry versus Notre Dame's putrid 3.4 yards per carry last season.

Clausen, behind a much less balanced offense and on a far less successful team, was ahead of Stafford in almost every statistical category at the same point.

What about Sanchez, the second quarterback taken in the NFL draft who came in with similar hype as Clausen? His stats were far worse than Clausen's after Sanchez's Junior year (a year ahead of Clausen) and Sanchez's sophomore stats (the same as Clausen's last year) were atrocious.

Two quarterbacks a year ahead of Clausen, McCoy and Bradford, stand out as far above the norm and better than Clausen at the same points in their careers, but both also played with veteran offenses. McCoy was only slightly better as a sophomore. Bradford was off the charts.

But by any other standard Clausen has performed well, he's just not been a savior. But outside of Tebow, McCoy and Bradford, there aren't many quarterbacks who've been better to this point, including Brady Quinn . If you truly want to mark Clausen's progress vis a vis his classmates, check out ESPN's top 15 below from Clausen's peer class. It's not much of a comparison. Jarret Lee has the closest statistical numbers and he's still far behind Clausen across the board.

Should have been Heisman trophy winner Vince Young completed 58% of his passes and threw for 6 touchdown passes against 7 interceptions his sophomore year. He didn't play at all as a true freshmen.

Heisman trophy winner Carson Palmer completed 55 % of his passes for 2,941 yards and 16 TDs with 18 interceptions as a sophomore.

Heisman trophy winner Matt Leinart didn't take meaningful snaps until his Junior year, his third in the program.

Heisman trophy winner Troy Smith didn't play as a freshmen, but completed 55% of his passes for 8 TDs and 3 Ints as a sophomore.

Brady Quinn completed 54% of his passes for 2,586 yards, 17 TDs and 10 Ints as a Sophomore.

In sum, by any reasonable non-emoting measure, Clausen, to this point, is far ahead of his peers and almost all of those who've preceded him. I've heard some continue to complain about Clausen's announcement speech and how he should be held to a higher standard because of that. And if we were a bunch of grudge holding high school girls outside a locker, I could see how you might hold that position, but otherwise that's just emota-whining and inane.

I would hope Irish fans have a little more maturity in them.

Clausen, to this point, has been, by far, the best quarterback of his top 15 peers in his class. The only quarterback of the same year who has better stats that I've seen? Nevada's Colin Kaepernick. They had the exact same quarterback rating last year. **Note: It was pointed out to me that Kaepernick redshirted and is a year ahead of Clausen.

Harangody Returns

Mike Brey has been putting his Twitter account to good use, but probably no better use from a fan perspective than today, when he Tweeted:

"Gody to return to the Irish!!"

It seems that Luke Harangody has decided to complete his eligibility at Notre Dame, where he will spend the season in pursuit of some long-held and prestigious career records.

ND Ups the Performance Ante

(The Rock Report) - Just two months after ND Strength and Conditioning coach Ruben Mendoza called nutrition the "missing link in athletic performance", Notre Dame announced the formation of a new Athletic Performance Division. Said Notre Dame Athletic Director Jack Swarbrick, "The goals and expectations of athletics at Notre Dame necessitate finding ways for our student-athletes to optimize their efforts when they compete at the championship level of our programs. That doesn't happen by accident."

Mark Karwowski, A 16-year veteran of the Notre Dame athletics administration, will coordinate efforts to enhance areas such as strength and conditioning, athletic training and physical therapy, sports medicine, nutrition, sports psychology and others that contribute to student-athletes' physical welfare and on-field performance.

Currently Notre Dame does not have a training table as most schools with high level sports programs do, which many believe hurts Notre Dame's ability to compete during a long football season in a program that has to play athletes earlier in their careers.

While this move still has to play out, the continued cadence of sound, constructive moves from the Athletic Department provides mounting evidence that, after a decade of incompetence and fecklessness, Notre Dame may have finally found an Athletic Director equal to the challenge of upholding Notre Dame's long tradition of Athletic excellence. While the jury is still out and there are major issues such as scheduling on the horizon and that small problem called winning, the needle, at the very least, appears to be pointed in the right direction for Swarbrick, which would be welcome news to long suffering Irish fans.

Charlie, Leadership and the Secret Sauce

(The Rock Report ) -

“Every victory is won before the game is played.” ~ Lou Holtz

I was out having some drinks and ran into a player on the 1988 team who recounted the back story that led to the Irish’s inspirational thumping of Rodney Peete and the Trojans that year (pardon any lack of clarity here, we were a few pints deep.) A game that, to this day, remains one of my favorite Irish victories because the Irish simply beat the crap out of the Trojans.

To set the scene, USC was number two in the country, but a favorite over the number one ranked Irish. Before the game Holtz asked the team to assemble, waited until the entire team had joined and then walked in. He announced that Ricky Watters and Tony Brooks had been continually late to meetings and that he could suspend them, but that it was up to the players to decide what to do with them (to suspend them or let them play.) Holtz walked out and put the decision in their hands. A debate ensued and one of the players stood up and said that this was the game that would define their lifetimes, that they couldn’t let the opportunity slip away and that they should let Watters and Brooks play. But as the debate continued and while players agreed that it was too important an opportunity to lose… they also started thinking that if they believed enough, they didn’t need Watters and Brooks, that they could win without them. They voted to leave them behind (Holtz later admitted he had made the decision already.)*

The result was a physical ass kicking of the Trojans that was the last real hurdle to the 1988 championship. Holtz found a way to turn a negative into a positive just as he had done when he led Arkansas to their memorable Orange Bowl demolition of the Sooners.

“Motivation is simple. You eliminate those who are not motivated” ~ Lou Holtz

Every good coach has specific strengths, but the one thing all great coaches have is the ability to lead other coaches and players… and make them believe. Schematics are important. Recruiting is vitally important. Player management at the college level is critical. Coaching management at the highest level is equally critical.

What makes great coaches successful is not the just the ability to sell an idea but to lead their organizations through the tough times to get there. It's easy to forget that the criticism of Holtz was ear-splitting at times during his career, yet Holtz led through adversity and won.

“As a leader your attitude has a powerful impact on others. You have an obligation to develop a positive attitude, one that inspires the people around you to achieve the impossible” – Lou Holtz

What struck me about Brian Kelly at Cincinnati (calm down, in no way do I think he was ready to take over the Irish in ‘09) is that he had a horrible QB situation, actually worse than Notre Dame had in 2007, and he was able to work through it, make the players believe and turn in a very impressive BCS season for Cincinnati.

Was the quarterback situation a real and dire problem? They played five different quarterbacks during the season, of course it was.

Just like talent was a real problem and coaching changes are problems. But Kelly was able to not just sell the idea that success was probable/inevitable, but lead them through the tough times. Bearcat QB Tony Pike wasn’t even on the depth chart to start the season, but he said that Kelly made him believe he could and would win.

"He's a salesman, is what he is," says Grand Valley State coach Chuck Martin, who was Kelly's defensive coordinator at the school. "Whether it's Grand Valley State or Central Michigan or Cincinnati, he has kids believing they can move mountains. His No. 1 strength is offense. His No. 2 strength is how good he is politically at getting people to believe in his program. He sells it door to door, which not a lot of coaches will do.

"I remember at Central Michigan, somebody asked him how long the rebuilding cycle would be. He said, 'About 10 seconds.'"

“Yes, I know that you feel you are not strong enough. That's what the enemy thinks too. But we're gonna fool them.” – Knute Rockne

How does this relate to Charlie? Weis is a tough egg to crack, because he gets the problem and he can sell an idea, but what from what I’ve seen, is not a great manager of the team day to day through the tough times and or adept at keeping them motivated and believing. That’s where real leaders separate themselves. I’ve heard stories of Charlie motivating through fear (you won’t have my NFL endorsement) to encouragement (be yourself), but what is striking to me is that he doesn’t really know how to do it and that’s a problem.

“It is a fine thing to have ability, but the ability to discover ability in others is the true test.” - Lou Holtz

Urban Meyer is an asshole. Some of his players hated him even at Notre Dame, but he gets them to play at a high level. Charlie can be an asshole too, but his secret sauce hasn’t worked with either his assistants or the players to date. In 2006, his second year, we had players dogging it on the field in what was supposed to be a possible National Championship run.

“Your talent determines what you can do. Your motivation determines how much you’re willing to do. Your attitude determines how well you do it.” ~ Lou Holtz

That, to me, was a major sign of impending failure. He had others as well, such as sticking to his scheme beyond all rationality, going for it in absurd 4^th down situations and always taking the kickoff when you knew we’d be beaten down.

The problem is that Charlie doesn’t yet have the secret sauce. He’s guessing. He doesn’t know what he doesn’t know. And the frustrating thing is that he’s smart, he knows the game, he can sell, he cares and he works hard.

But it’s not enough.

You have be able to make everyone around you believe and that’s not a trait normally found in nature. A top level college coach needs that leadership intangible. Some guys are brought up that way in their families, others have an intuitive sense and pick it up, some have mentors and still others work at it and eventually get it or are thrust into circumstances that somehow draw it out of them. Charlie had a mentor in Bill Belichick, but I’m not sure Belichick would win in college and Charlie doesn’t seem to have that innate ability.

And even if you have the secret sauce, it’s not enough. You also have to be a good cultural fit for the position. Since Lou, Notre Dame's had two carpet-baggers and a believer without the secret sauce.

ND is primed for a run at the championship the next two seasons, but we need a coach who not only has the boxes checked, but also the secret sauce. Right now Charlie seems to be failing schematically, in coaching motivation and in player motivation. He appears to be a very classic case study in failure and what happens when you elevate a technical expert to an upper-level leadership position. Technical experts in leadership positions have an inclination to "go insular" when things go wrong and try to figure it out in their comfort zones, that's usually a recipe for failure. Leaders are highly engaged. It’s certainly not impossible for him to succeed, but he hasn’t done most of the job before, so he’s guessing. The hope is that the coaching changes would create the secret sauce, but that’s a guess. Notre Dame needs someone who has it. Whatever it is. Someone who can coach schematically, recruit and make his players and coaches believe.

I hope that Charlie gets it this year, but the odds, at this point, are not in his favor. Given his background, his inclination will be to run back to what he knows best and focus on schematic advantages, but that may not serve him. If I were Charlie I'd limit the schematic analysis and concentrate on having the toughest, most in shape, fundamentally strong team in the country; one that believes they can win regardless of schematics. Being able to win Rocks, Papers, Scissors doesn't matter much if the other guy can punch you in the mouth. There are no awards for cleverness. When LSU beat Florida two years ago, they did it by controlling the line of scrimmage. Florida did the same to Alabama last year. That control of the line is key to making any well-called play work.

There was some leadership analysis recently that showed that the most powerful way a leader can use his/her time, in order, are to 1- show the team the road map for success, 2 - put in place a mechanism/process/resources to make sure everyone feels they can achieve those goals, 3 - manage the day to day effectively and 4- inspire them to achieve.

To be sure, there were signs that Charlie may have started to figure it out in the Hawaii game, where Weis adjusted his approach and the team responded in fairly dramatic fashion, but a look back at the abysmal run from Pittsburgh to USC last year should give anyone pause. That written, winning can do a lot to change a coach's and team's perceptions and a rising talent base, softer schedule and rejiggered coaching staff will give Weis a tailwind he hasn't had since 2005. I think it's fair to say that all but a small minority are hoping Coach Weis puts it together this year and, if he does, he'll likely pull in another top class and his coaching comeback story will become part of Notre Dame's lore.

*There's a very good chance that the pints changed the story a bit.

**Please save the "you want Charlie to fail" or "just another excuse for Charlie" comments that seem to accompany every article that seem either pro or anti-Weis.

Cheer, Cheer for Ole Notre Dame?

(The Rock Report) - For the last two years Notre Dame has fielded some of the youngest teams in college football. In 2009-2010, Notre Dame will put one of the most experienced teams on the field in the college football... on the offensive line (where Notre Dame returns the 9th most starts in the country.)

But surprisingly overall, compared the rest of the country, the Irish will still be a fairly young team.

In Phil Steele's "Experience Chart", which looks mostly at age, has Notre Dame ranked 112th in the country, below everyone on the schedule except for Michigan. FYI, Pittsburgh is 10th in the country.

EDIT: But his new experience chart, released today, which combines age, experience, and returning yards, etc. puts the Irish at 19, behind only Washington and Stanford on the schedule. Steele has used experience as a key indicator that flies under the radar of most analysts. Says Steele (sound familiar?):

"A player gains valuable experience for every year he plays and becomes a better player because of it. Players also mature physically while they are in college and there is a big difference between a raw 17 or 18 year old true Freshman and a mature and physically stronger 22 year old Senior. Some teams that send their players away on missions like BYU, routinely have Seniors up to 25 years old. There is also a coaching adage that for every Freshman starter you have, you lose one game."

The Irish also ranked 91st in the country in number of returning letter men and 67th in percentage of returning tackles on the defense.

It's on offense where the Irish show a big advantage, with the Irish ranked 6th in number of yards returning in 2009.

EDIT: Looking at age of starters it looks like Weis will pay the price for so many misses in this senior class, which now appears over rated. The talent surge is in the Junior and Sophomore classes and those classes return in 2009 with playing time. Expect the Irish to rank near the top in the country across the board in 2010.

The Atkins Diet (of Headlines)

Notre Dame picked up its first commitment for the hoops class of 2010 in the person of 6'1" point guard Eric Atkins. This fulfills a critical need in the upcoming class -- someone to take the reins from Ben Hansbrough when the junior-to-be graduates in 2011.

The Columbia, MD, product chose the Irish after two unofficial visits to campus, one during the season and one the last weekend in April. In an interview with Scout's Evan Daniels, he cited the campus, the educational opportunities, and his relationship with Mike Brey as driving forces behind his commitment.

An evaluation by the ESPN folks can be found here, with his Scout.com profile here.