Irish Opponent Watch

Although Notre Dame’s school administration refused to schedule a game this weekend, the rest of the college football world decided it was time to play. Here’s a brief look at how future Irish opponents fared in their openers. The 5-6 aggregate mark included a few stunning losses and a pair of impressive wins by Navy and USC.

Cal Poly 29 – San Diego State 27
The Aztecs were breaking in a new offense, but they forgot to install a running game. Quarterback Ryan Lindley threw for 352 yards, but that and a porous defense were unable to hold off the Mustangs at the end. It was an inauspicious debut for SDSU Coach Chuck Long, who is entering his third season. It could be another long one although Lindley will make it mildly entertaining.

Utah 25 – Michigan 23
The Utes should have won comfortably, but made several mistakes that made the final score somewhat deceiving. Michigan’s running game did not show up and starting QB Nick Sheridan got an early hook in favor of passer Steve Threet. The Wolverines scored only after Utah turnovers gave them field position, but it was almost enough to pull out the win. The Michigan defense was a step slow early but dominated in the second half. Freshman running back Sam McGuffie was a bust and should sit on the pine while Brandon Minor gets most of the carries, but Minor is apparently in Coach Rich Rodriguez’ doghouse.

California 38 – Michigan State 31
This game was entertaining throughout and both teams will have winning seasons. The Spartans have a number of talented players but a few mental breakdowns on defense and special teams cost them dearly. Running back Javon Ringer looks NFL-ready but QB Brian Hoyer still telegraphs his passes and has only average arm strength. Defensively, MSU has several new faces up front. Although they held up well athletically, the Spartans were frequently caught out of position by Cal and burned for long gainers. Once they get a few things straightened out, this team will do some damage in the weak Big-10.

Purdue did not play, but no one seemed to notice.

Stanford 36 – Oregon State 28
Like him or not, brash Coach Jim Harbaugh has injected some life into a moribund program. His troops played with passion against the Beavers and made winning plays when it counted. The Cardinal has a few athletes to compete in the tough PAC-10 conference, and they should not be embarrassed in their quest for respectability. Harbaugh actually installed a decent running game around talented back Toby Gerhart, who rushed for 147 yards and two touchdowns. This type of production is a rarity in a league where only USC has consistently demonstrated an ability to move the ball on the ground.

North Carolina 35 – McNeese State 27
The Tar Heels needed a 14 point fourth quarter to put away the Division II Cowboys, but Brandon Tate dominated the game with nearly 400 yards of total offense. Tate scored on an 82-yard punt return and a 57-yard pass reception, and added an array of kickoff returns and runs from scrimmage to his stat sheet. There is not much to tell about North Carolina from this relatively inauspicious debut. We’ll see how much they progress in the next few weeks against the likes of Virginia Tech and Miami before assessing their chances against Notre Dame.

Oregon 44 – Washington 10
The Huskies relied on the athletic ability of QB Jake Locker to keep them in the game against the Ducks, and it seemed to work in the first half. Oregon had to shuffle reserve quarterbacks into the lineup after taking a quick 14-0 lead, and Locker’s scrambling ability brought his team to within 14-10 at halftime. Ty Willingham had no answer in the third quarter when the Ducks figured out that Locker was the Huskies’ only real threat, and his defense collapsed under the weight of constant pressure. Washington had no running game to speak of and there are only a few defenders who know how to tackle. It’s going to be another dreadful season in Seattle, but Locker and Willingham may not survive long enough (for different reasons) to participate in the Apple Cup.

Bowling Green 27 – Pittsburgh 17
Speaking of coaches on the hot seat, Dave Wannstedt’s fourth season in Pittsburgh opened with a resounding thud. The Panthers were blanked 13-0 in the second half by the Falcons, who limited LeSean McCoy and friends to only 47 yards rushing after the first quarter. This result confounded experts who had placed Pitt in the preseason top 25, but anyone who has followed Wannstedt’s career could not have been surprised by the result. The Panthers have a chance to get well against improving Buffalo (no, not the Bills) next week before their soft schedule becomes marginally more difficult.

Boston College 21 – Kent State 0
The Eagles had better luck than Pittsburgh against the Mid-America Conference, shutting down the Golden Flashes in a snooze-fest before a reported “crowd” of 10,788. Quarterback Chris Crane ran for two scores and the BC defense stuffed Kent State’s feeble attempts to move the football. Kent was actually in the game most of the afternoon despite coming off a 3-9 record last season, but the hosts committed three turnovers to none for BC. The Eagles could not muster much of an offense, which may be a problem when they play Georgia Tech next week.

Navy 41 – Towson State 13
The Midshipmen rushed for 558 yards in the successful debut of Coach Ken Niumatalolo. Tailback Shun White accounted for a school-record 348 yards, including touchdown runs of 87, 73 and 33 yards. The only speed bump for Navy until its November 15 clash with the Irish is a late September visit to Wake Forest. Beyond that, the Middies appear positioned to roll through their schedule with typical efficiency.

Northwestern 30 – Syracuse 10
Syracuse coach Greg Robinson is another underachiever who may not be around when the Orange visit Notre Dame on November 22. His 7-29 record and lifeless offense may not be enough to keep the lid on the Carrier Dome much longer. Syracuse lacks any discernable identity, and its only weapon may be its punter. Rob Long punted seven times and averaged 47 yards, but no one else including quarterback Andrew Robinson did anything special against the Wildcats.

USC 52 – Virginia 7
The Trojans dominated behind a rebuilt offensive line and a smothering defense. Mark Sanchez took over behind center and made it look easy with three TD passes against Al Groh’s Cavaliers. Groh is yet another head coach with an NFL pedigree and a lackluster college record, but his USC counterpart Pete Carroll has no such problems. The Trojans are loaded again and will test themselves by hosting Ohio State on September 13 before entering PAC-10 conference play. Aside from a defense with several NFL caliber athletes, a balanced attack and solid coaching will make them a BCS favorite should they get past the Buckeyes.

EYES WIDE SHUT

There is plenty of Kool-Aid being sold in South Bend these days, and I’m surprised by the numbers of folks that are more than eager to guzzle it. Perhaps it’s an elixir that will erase the painful memories of Notre Dame’s 2007 season while pumping up expectations for a splendid campaign in 2008. In any event, my approach to the upcoming football season is one of caution and healthy skepticism. There are plenty of holes to fill and improvements to be made, and anyone who predicts nine wins or more after a dismal 3-9 performance is conveniently overlooking a few basic truths.

Let’s start with the defense. The Irish ranked 96th out of 119 Division I programs in rush defense last year, barely edging out powerhouses such as Eastern Michigan and Rice. The only difference I see up front this year is that last year’s best player, Trevor Laws, has moved on to the NFL. Laws made a boatload of tackles (112) last season while everyone else was getting blown off the ball, and his replacement will come from a committee of freshmen and a few guys who have not done anything in previous seasons to get them on the field for meaningful action. It’s safe to say that none of our 2008 defensive linemen would start for a Top 20 team, and this by itself is both frightening and sad.

The linebackers aren't all that bad, particularly if Brian Smith works out in the middle and Maurice Crum is healthy. New coach Jon Tenuta will have them blitzing on their way through the tunnel, and this will lead to several big plays in both directions.

One thing you’ll need with a blitz-happy scheme is a solid set of cornerbacks, and Notre Dame lost its best cover man when Darrin Walls was forced to sit out the season. That means Terrail Lambert will take on more responsibility and the opponent’s best receiver. Lambert has never been a shut down corner, and talented free safety David Bruton is going to have a tough time figuring out how to cover the entire field when the blitzers do not quite reach the passer in time.

Special teams is another area for which Irish fans maintain a strong case of denial. The biggest change is the departure of ace punt returner Tom Zbikowski, and the same cast of previously ineffective kickers returns to take another swipe at the ball. Last year, Notre Dame’s opponents were treated to an average starting position in the vicinity of their 40 yard line for each offensive possession. The Irish still don’t have anyone who can kick the ball to the goal line or beyond, so not much change is likely. Coverage teams should be better since Coach Weis took a 101 course at summer school in Blacksburg, Virginia, but that may not be saying much since last year’s bunch was downright awful.

Notre Dame was not very competitive last season, but they may be good enough this year such that a field goal kicker might be able to help win a game or two. The bad news is there are no proven kickers on the roster, and any field goals will probably come from close-in territory where the Irish are tempted to roll the dice and go for it on fourth down.

If the defense plays as I expect, the Irish will be returning a lot of kickoffs again this season. There were not many seams last year and the timing between the Armando Allen and his blockers was abysmal. Weis has promised strong special teams every year since his arrival, but if anything their performance has deteriorated. Again, keep drinking that Kool-Aid.

Finally, let’s look at the offense. Weis will hand over the play-calling duties to Mike Haywood, so one would think that Notre Dame will run the ball more often. The bad news is that this ground-based juggernaut finished 115th last year, and the same personnel return for another try. Yes, we’ve all heard the offensive linemen have gained weight and strength during the off-season, but opposing teams have weight rooms and conditioning programs, too.

The right side of the line will feature 660 pounds of Chris Stewart and Sam Young. These guys are supposed to be road-graders, but they may be better suited to go against a blocking sled. If defensive linemen are still allowed by the rules to move laterally and shoot through gaps, the resultant whiffs by Stewart and Young could suck the air right out of the stadium.

The left side, particularly at tackle, is downright scary. Neither Paul Duncan nor backup Mike Turkovich is ideally suited for the position, but there is no one else available. Duncan does not have the requisite agility and footwork to neutralize opposing pass rushers, so he had better be able to yell, “Look out, Jimmy” at the appropriate times.

Overall, this group of Irish linemen is not very light on their feet, so opponents will attempt to transform them into set of turnstiles with stunts and delayed blitzes.
I have no doubts that Jimmy Clausen will be a much-improved quarterback this season if he can remain upright. A strong running game will help, but he may have to settle for “decent” since teams rarely improve from 115th to the upper echelon in one year.

The wide receivers are another area where the unknown is greater than the known. David Grimes is the most accomplished of the group, but he is small and played much of last season through a variety of ailments. Duval Kamara is a talented sophomore whom many project to have a breakout season. The problem with Irish fans is they always expect more than is objectively likely, and they frequently expect more than is humanly possible.

This year’s phenom is a highly acclaimed receiver from Minnesota named Michael Floyd. Expectations for Floyd make those for Kamara appear pedestrian. Weis has already expressed giddiness about Floyd’s skill set, but I’ve heard this song before. Two years ago, he gushed over Munir Prince, who is no longer with the program. Allen was the anointed home run threat last year, but he gained only 348 yards rushing and his long gain was a paltry 15 yards.

None of this will stop some Notre Dame fans from talking about a BCS bowl, but there are quite a few question marks on this team and only some of them can be answered in eight short months. The schedule also fuels optimism since it is arguably the easiest (and most uninspiring) slate in recent memory, but Irish fans routinely underestimate the ability of other teams to develop capable replacements for departed players.

In summary, the best way for fans to approach this season is with eyes wide open. The good news is that the Irish return 19 starters and the entire coaching staff from last season, but those same facts are also the bad news.

Tomorrow's Rock Report will feature SEE's rebuttal to my gloomy outlook after he has chugged a few liters of the local drink of choice.